Analysis of Government announcements made about decision making since 2022
2015
In 2015 the Better Business Cases (BBC) framework was evaluated by the author of the HM Treasury BBC Guidance whose findings were:
That more focus is needed:
to understand how to deliver better public service outcomes
on planning for the medium and longer terms
on service demand and capacity planning and the enabling infrastructure in its widest sense
to be placed on programmes that deliver transformational change.
to improving the overall efficiency and effectiveness of public services
on making the case for change from the standpoint of the local, regional and national perspective
to transform the way in which services are provided.
to express outcomes in terms of SMART objectives
on building BBC people capability given there are sufficient products, processes, tools, techniques
on using the 5 case Model to give effect to strategy
He also provided some observations in response to feedback from Endorsed BBC Experts and practitioners:
• Practitioners need to find more effective and timely ways to engage senior executives on the benefits to them from good business case development process as their natural tendency is to retrofit on the basis of pre-conceived solutions.
• Competent and fully trained reviewers are essential to “policing” the system and maintaining quality standards
• Most public servants want to do the right thing - we need to show them how. Most public servants are risk adverse – we need to demonstrate how BBC mitigates and manages risks.
He said the fundamental purpose of BBC is to challenge this behaviour and to change the culture over time. The principal ways of overcoming the tendency to retrofit are twofold in conjunction with supporting workshops:
1. assisting to frame the investment objectives correctly in the first instance; and
2. use of the Options Filter for the scoping of a wide range of potential, realistic options in the second.
The BBC Evaluation is (here) and was published by The Treasury in 2015.
2022
In March 2022 NZ Treasury stated that “relatively few investment proposals coming through the central government investment management system are well-planned and the use of business cases to support investment decision-making is variable.” (refer to The Treasury Investment Management Statement here on page 53)
In May 2022 NZ Treasury stated “if there is a high risk of projects being funded without a rigorous assessment based on sound analysis, the Treasury advised that the Government should set a lower debt ceiling. (refer to The Treasury’s “analysis and recommendations for fiscal rules” here on page 1.)
2023
The Treasury’s 2023 Wellbeing Report highlighted the need to develop wellbeing solutions drawn from local intelligence and not just top down: focusing on medium-to-long-term planning with trade-offs and using Treasury CBAx as well as the Living Standards Framework.
In December 2023, the Auditor General released his report that Ministers did not have enough information to be sure that decisions supported value for money and agencies developed investment options for Ministers within extremely tight time frames.
2024
In February 2024, the Secretary for the Treasury said publicly a joined-up approach is needed across the public sector to make decisions that will result in measurable increases in benefits for New Zealanders within a system that supports coordinated and considered decision making. here
In February 2024 the Auditor General released His report that mental health services and support currently available to young people is fragmented, and not all young people have timely and barrier-free access to appropriate mental health care. here
In 2024 the review into Cyclone Gabrielle explained that resilience building must be community-led and tailored to each community, and communities must have the support and resources to allow them to create their own resilience-building approaches.
In March 2024 Government released its Budget Policy Statement including the following statements:
Its goal is to build a stronger, more productive economy; more efficient, effective, and responsive public services; get the government’s books back in order and restore discipline to public spending.
funding high quality investments that provide benefits to New Zealand over time,
building a sustainable pipeline of investments and capital investment decisions based on robust asset management and investment planning, including the presentation of high-quality business cases.
In August 2024 the Prime Minister announced that Cabinet was to:
streamline the purpose provisions in the Local Government Act to get councils back to basics by abolishing the four wellbeing provisions
investigate performance benchmarks for local councils because it’s difficult to get consistent, easily accessible and comparable information about how councils are actually performing.
investigate options to limit council expenditure on ‘nice-to-haves’.
review the transparency and accountability rules that apply to councils because there have been too many absurd scenarios in which ratepayers are effectively shut out of decision-making because elected members’ rights to access information are treated as a secondary consideration.
In August 2024 Treasury released its Quarterly Investment Report March 2024 https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2024-07/cabinet-paper-eco-24-sub-0110.pdf stating:
In Government there is a lack of long-term planning and poor strategic thinking and inconsistent application of investment management rules and requirements. (e.g. business cases are not completed adequately, or at all, in seeking funding)
they commenced a review and update of the investment planning (Better Business Case) and assurance (Gateway) frameworks to ensure these are fit for purpose and are delivering value for Ministers and Cabinet, to deliver shorter and faster business cases that have the key information needed for Ministers and Cabinet to make well-informed, timely decisions throughout the investment lifecycle. The 2015 BBC Evaluation here stated “ there has been a significant improvement in the application and use of the Better Business Cases programme and guidance in the New Zealand state sector over the past 18 months, which has resulted in more robust expenditure proposals.”
there are opportunities for agencies to collaborate on investments to reduce individual investment risk, support more coordinated and efficient procurement practices, and develop capability across agencies.
In September 2024 the NZ Treasury said publicly that New Zealand is facing a major financial challenge caused by an ageing population, higher-than-expected government debt and structural fiscal deficits (i.e. the cost of delivering current services would rise by about $2.5 billion over the year ahead) and they have every confidence that we can make the changes necessary to live sustainably in a society characterized by longer human lives.
In September 2024 Minister of Infrastructure Chris Bishop warned Cabinet that Investment proposals are coming to us for approval before they are ready, and without sufficient evidence to support our decision-making," "This will ultimately slow the ability to deliver our infrastructure and investment priorities." "Treasury has started providing us with indicators to inform us about agency investment planning and delivery performance," he said. In large part, Bishop now is reliant on Treasury, which had oversight of the previous flawed system. In turn, Treasury depends on oversight through a blurred lens across both new projects, and old assets; reports note how agencies tended to underinvest and "sweat assets for as long as possible".
In December 2024 Treasury told Minister of Infrastructure Chris Bishop that many agencies lack understanding about planning large infrastructure projects, and this was "exacerbated by skills and capability gaps and poor asset planning and management". New projects planning was fraught, and building them was fraught, and so were existing assets, it said.
2025
In 2025 The Infrastructure Commission undertook a self-assessment of the NZ Governments Investment Management System against the IMF’s Public Investment Management standard. The findings included:
agencies take inconsistent approaches to long-term investment planning
the government doesn’t always fully assess projects before funding them
central and local government planning is not well coordinated
the annual budget cycle gives agencies limited certainty about future funding
decision makers lack quality information when choosing projects to invest in
there are gaps in project leadership, assurance and monitoring.
The self-assessment is here-https://media.umbraco.io/te-waihanga-30-year-strategy/5wbjv4cu/from-plans-to-projects-web.pdf
On 15 May 2025 The Minister for Infrastructure said “We want to strengthen the infrastructure system to lift asset performance and service outcomes for New Zealanders, ensure there is adequate investment in planned asset maintenance and renewal activities, ensure new investment decisions can be made within the overall context of agencies’ asset management plans, and improve accountability, capability, and oversight of our infrastructure. Article is here
On 18th May SIA interview with Jack Tame about Social Investment here with reference to cabinet paper here “Over time, we expect that the Fund to devolve significant commissioning of services to communities. “The first strand in the social investment work programme will see the Fund making initial social investments in demonstration initiatives that will improve outcomes for priority cohorts of people
On 19th May the NZ Infrastructure commission Delivering Better Value and Better Outcomes, which looks at the challenges with traditional project-by-project, outsourced procurement models here
The COVID 19 Lessons Learnt Report stated “The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with declining levels of public trust in government. Many public submitters expressed concern about the ongoing effects of the pandemic period on social cohesion, trust and collective identity in Aotearoa New Zealand.” Page 62 of Summary Report here
On 1st July the outgoing Auditor General’s reflections here were:
the public’s trust in democratic institutions is declining.
Public organisations need to carefully consider how they build and maintain relationships with the diverse communities they serve.
The public sector needs robust systems to support the integrity of what it does.
The public sector is not short of strategies and plans but there is a lack of integrated and enduring planning, preparation, and investment for the future.
It is difficult to get answers to important questions like:
What are a government’s goals?
How is it planning to achieve them?
How does government spending connect to these plans?
And what has been achieved for the money spent?